Back 99942 أبوفيس Arabic 99942 أبوفيس ARZ 99942 Apofis Azerbaijani 99942 Апофис Bulgarian (99942) Apophis Catalan ئەپۆفیس ٩٩٩٤٢ CKB Apophis (planetka) Czech (99942) Apophis Danish (99942) Apophis German 99942 Άποφις Greek
 Model of 99942 Apophis's shape, assuming the entire surface is of a similar composition. | |
| Discovery[1] | |
|---|---|
| Discovered by | |
| Discovery site | Kitt Peak[1] |
| Discovery date | June 19, 2004 |
| Designations | |
| (99942) Apophis | |
| Pronunciation | /əˈpɒfɪs/, (trad.) /ˈæpəfɪs/ |
Named after | Ἄποφις Apophis |
| 2004 MN4 | |
| Adjectives | Apophidian /æpəˈfɪdiən/ (Latin Apŏpidis) |
| Orbital characteristics[1] | |
| Epoch 13 September 2023 (JD 2453300.5) | |
| Uncertainty parameter 0 | |
| Observation arc | 6267 days (17.16 yr) |
| Earliest precovery date | March 15, 2004 |
| Aphelion | 1.0994 AU (164.47 million km) |
| Perihelion | 0.7461 AU (111.61 million km) |
| 0.9227 AU (138.03 million km) | |
| Eccentricity | 0.19144 |
| 0.89 yr (323.7 d) | |
Average orbital speed | 30.73 km/s |
| 142.9° | |
| 1.11198°/day | |
| Inclination | 3.339° |
| 203.96° | |
| 126.60° | |
| Earth MOID | 0.00026 AU (39 thousand km) |
| Jupiter MOID | 4.12 AU (616 million km) |
| TJupiter | 6.464 |
| Physical characteristics | |
| Dimensions |
|
Mean radius |
|
| Mass | 6.1×1010 kg (assumed)[3] |
Mean density | |
| 30.4 h (1.27 d)[1][5] 30.55±0.12 h[6] 30.67±0.06 h[7] Tumbling:[8] 27.38±0.07 h (precession period),[8] 263±6 h (rotation period),[8] 30.56±0.01 h (period of harmonic with strongest lightcurve amplitude)[8] | |
| Temperature | 270 K |
| Sq[5] | |
99942 Apophis (provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a near-Earth asteroid and a potentially hazardous object with a diameter of 370 metres (1,210 feet)[3] that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 when initial observations indicated a probability up to 2.7% that it would hit Earth on April 13, 2029. Additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth in 2029. Until 2006, a small possibility nevertheless remained that, during its 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a gravitational keyhole of no more than about 800 kilometres (500 mi) in diameter,[11][12] which would have set up a future impact exactly seven years later on April 13, 2036. This possibility kept it at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006, when the probability that Apophis would pass through the keyhole was determined to be very small and Apophis's rating on the Torino scale was lowered to zero. By 2008, the keyhole had been determined to be less than 1 km wide.[11] During the short time when it had been of greatest concern, Apophis set the record for highest rating ever on the Torino scale, reaching level 4 on December 27, 2004.[13]
Preliminary observations by Goldstone radar in January 2013 effectively ruled out the possibility of an Earth impact by Apophis in 2036.[14] By May 6, 2013 (April 15, 2013, observation arc), the possibility of an impact on April 13, 2036 had been eliminated altogether.[3] In 2036, Apophis will approach the Earth at a third the distance of the Sun in both March and December,[1] but this is about the distance of the planet Venus when it overtakes Earth every 1.6 years. On April 12, 2068, the nominal trajectory has Apophis 1.87 AU (280 million km) from Earth.[15] Entering March 2021, six asteroids each had a more notable cumulative Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale rating than Apophis, and none of those has a Torino level above 0.[16][a] On average, an asteroid the size of Apophis (370 metres) is expected to impact Earth once in about 80,000 years.[17] Observations in 2020 by the Subaru Telescope confirmed David Vokrouhlický's 2015 Yarkovsky effect predictions.[18] The Goldstone radar observed Apophis March 3–11, 2021, helping to refine the orbit again,[19] and on March 25, 2021, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory announced that Apophis has no chance of impacting Earth in the next 100 years.[20][21] The uncertainty in the 2029 approach distance has been reduced from hundreds of kilometers to now just a couple of kilometers,[22] greatly enhancing predictions of future approaches.
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Goldstone2021was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ "NASA Analysis: Earth Is Safe From Asteroid Apophis for 100-Plus Years". Jet Propulsion Laboratory. March 25, 2021.
- ^ Hurst, Luke (March 28, 2021). "Asteroid Apophis won't hit Earth for at least 100 years, says NASA". euronews. Retrieved April 2, 2021.
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