Moore's law

Semiconductor device fabrication
MOSFET scaling (process nodes)
020 µm – 1968 010 µm – 1971 006 µm – 1974 003 µm – 1977  1.5 µm – 1981 001 µm – 1984 800 nm – 1987 600 nm – 1990 350 nm – 1993 250 nm – 1996 180 nm – 1999 130 nm – 2001 090 nm – 2003 065 nm – 2005 045 nm – 2007 032 nm – 2009 028 nm – 2010 022 nm – 2012 014 nm – 2014 010 nm – 2016 007 nm – 2018 005 nm – 2020 003 nm – 2022
Future 002 nm ~ 2024
Half-nodes Density CMOS Device (multi-gate) Moore's law Transistor count Semiconductor Industry Nanoelectronics
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Moore's law is the observation that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit (IC) doubles about every two years. Moore's law is an observation and projection of a historical trend. Rather than a law of physics, it is an empirical relationship linked to gains from experience in production.

The observation is named after Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Fairchild Semiconductor and Intel (and former CEO of the latter), who in 1965 posited a doubling every year in the number of components per integrated circuit,^[a] and projected this rate of growth would continue for at least another decade. In 1975, looking forward to the next decade, he revised the forecast to doubling every two years, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41%. While Moore did not use empirical evidence in forecasting that the historical trend would continue, his prediction has held since 1975 and has since become known as a "law".

Moore's prediction has been used in the semiconductor industry to guide long-term planning and to set targets for research and development, thus functioning to some extent as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Advancements in digital electronics, such as the reduction in quality-adjusted microprocessor prices, the increase in memory capacity (RAM and flash), the improvement of sensors, and even the number and size of pixels in digital cameras, are strongly linked to Moore's law. These ongoing changes in digital electronics have been a driving force of technological and social change, productivity, and economic growth.

Industry experts have not reached a consensus on exactly when Moore's law will cease to apply. Microprocessor architects report that semiconductor advancement has slowed industry-wide since around 2010, slightly below the pace predicted by Moore's law. In September 2022, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang considered Moore's law dead,^[2] while Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger was of the opposite view.^[3]

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