Rust Belt

The Rust Belt, formerly the Steel Belt or Factory Belt, is an area of industrial decline centered in the Great Lakes region of the United States. Common definitions of the belt stretch from southeastern Wisconsin and northern Illinois to western Pennsylvania and Upstate New York, spanning large parts of Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio; some definitions also include parts of Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Kentucky, West Virginia, Maryland, and New Jersey. From the late 19th century to the late 20th century, the region formed the industrial heartland of the country, with its economies largely based on steel and automobile production, coal mining, and the processing of raw materials. The term "Rust Belt", derived from the substance rust, refers to the socially corrosive effects of economic decline, population loss, and urban decay attributable to deindustrialization. The term gained popularity in the U.S. starting in the 1980s,^[1] when it was commonly contrasted with the Sun Belt, which was then surging.

The Rust Belt experienced industrial decline starting in the 1950s and 1960s,^[2] with manufacturing peaking as a percentage of U.S. GDP in 1953 and declining ever since. Demand for coal declined as industry turned to oil and natural gas, and U.S. steel was undercut by German and Japanese firms. High labor costs within the Rust Belt encouraged companies to move production to the Sun Belt or overseas. The U.S. automotive industry declined as consumers turned to fuel-efficient, imported vehicles after the 1973 oil crisis raised the cost of gasoline, and when foreign manufacturers opened factories in the U.S., they largely avoided the strongly unionized Rust Belt. Families moved away, leaving cities with falling tax revenues, declining infrastructure, and abandoned buildings. Major Rust Belt cities include Baltimore, Buffalo, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Rochester, and St. Louis.^[3] New England was also hit hard by industrial decline, but cities closer to the East Coast, including in the Boston, New York, and Washington metropolitan areas, were able to adapt by diversifying or transforming their economies to shift focus towards services, advanced manufacturing, and high-tech industries.^[4]

Since the 1980s, presidential candidates have devoted much of their time to the economic concerns of the Rust Belt region, which includes several populous swing states, including Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states were crucial to Donald Trump's victories in the 2016 and 2024 presidential elections, as well as his defeat by Democrat Joe Biden in 2020.^[5]